By Fresh Facts Magazine
Nigeria closed 2025 with a renewed inflationary uptick, as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that the country’s headline inflation rate rose to 15.15 per cent in December, up from 14.45 per cent in November. The latest figures, released on Thursday, mark the first full inflation reading under a newly rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) framework.
A New Inflation Lens
Unlike previous reports, the December inflation figure was calculated using a rebased CPI with 2024 as the base year and 2023 as the weight reference period. According to the NBS, sub-indexes are now derived from a 12-month reference period, where the average CPI for all twelve months of 2024 is set to 100.
“This differs from the single-month index method, where December 2024 alone is set to 100,” the Bureau explained, noting that the rebasing provides a more comprehensive reflection of current consumption patterns and price realities.
Under the new methodology, the CPI rose to 131.2 points in December, representing a 0.7-point increase from November 2025, signaling persistent price pressures despite signs of moderation in short-term inflation momentum.
Food Still the Major Driver
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the dominant contributors to headline inflation, underscoring the continued vulnerability of household budgets to food price movements.
On a year-on-year basis, food inflation stood at 10.84 per cent, while month-on-month food inflation fell to –0.36 per cent, down sharply from 1.13 per cent in November. The NBS attributed this decline largely to falling prices of key staples, including tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, ground pepper, and onions.
This easing suggests a temporary relief for consumers, particularly as the year ended, even though annual food prices remain elevated.
Core Inflation Remains Elevated
Beyond food, underlying inflationary pressures remained strong. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, rose to 18.63 per cent year-on-year in December 2025, highlighting persistent cost pressures in areas such as housing, transportation, healthcare, and services.
However, on a month-on-month basis, core inflation slowed to 0.58 per cent, down from 1.28 per cent in November, offering a cautious signal that price acceleration may be easing.
Slower Monthly Price Growth
Overall, month-on-month headline inflation moderated to 0.54 per cent in December, compared to 1.22 per cent in November, reinforcing indications of short-term deceleration despite the annual increase.
Wide State-Level Disparities
Inflation trends varied significantly across Nigeria’s states. On a year-on-year basis, Abia (19.03 per cent) recorded the highest headline inflation, followed by Ogun (18.80 per cent) and Katsina (18.66 per cent).
At the other end of the spectrum, Sokoto (8.61 per cent), Plateau (9.05 per cent), and Kaduna (10.38 per cent) experienced the slowest increases in consumer prices.
Food inflation also showed sharp regional contrasts. Yobe (15.25 per cent), Ogun (14.12 per cent), and Abuja (13.24 per cent) posted the highest food inflation rates year-on-year, while Akwa Ibom (4.34 per cent), Sokoto (4.62 per cent), and Plateau (6.19 per cent) recorded the lowest.
What It Means Going Forward
The December inflation report underscores a complex picture: annual inflation is rising, even as monthly price increases show signs of slowing, and food prices ease in the short term. With the introduction of the rebased CPI, policymakers, investors, and households will now be interpreting inflation through a more current statistical lens—one that could influence monetary policy decisions and economic planning in 2026.
For many Nigerians, however, the reality remains unchanged: inflation continues to shape daily living costs, with food prices and regional disparities defining how deeply households feel the pressure of rising prices.
